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Archive | Older Stuff | E-mail | Feed  October 10, 2008 Forced Selling U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow Below 9,000; GM, Insurers Slide“Investors pulled a record $72 billion from U.S.-managed stock and bond mutual funds in September, seeking the safety of government-insured bank deposits as the financial crisis worsened, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The exodus continued in the first week of October, with an additional $49.3 billion of outflows.”The big symmetrical triangle broke down and there was freefall below 962.50. Looks like a lot of forced selling (people who have no choice) and panic selling (people who have a choice but are bailing anyway). time savedtime saved Cat: Trading | Time: 9:55 am (utc+8) Comments (13) October 9, 2008 Interviews with Nicolas Darvas Via zentrader.ca I found that solitarytrader posted links to a couple of fascinating interviews, one from 1959 and another from 1974, with Nicolas Darvas … here are my selected excerpts:Pas de Dough (1959 Interview):“Since he has to do trading from wherever he is dancing he ignores tips, financial stories and brokers’ letters, and has never been in a broker’s office. Basically, his approach is that of a chartist: he watches price and volume … When a stock makes a good advance on strong volume, he begins watching it, buys when he feels that informed buyers are getting in. For example, when he was playing in Calcutta, he noticed E. L. Bruce moving up in the stock tables. Suddenly, on 35,000 shares it moved from 16 to 50. He bought in at 51, though he knew nothing about the company, and ‘I didn’t care what they made.’ (They make hardwood flooring.) He sold out at 171 six weeks later. Darvas places his buy orders for levels that he considers breakout points on the upside. At the same time, he places a stop-loss sell order just below his buy order, so that if the stock does not move straight up after he buys, he will be sold out and his loss cut. ‘I have no ego in the stock market,’ he says. ‘If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast.’ Darvas thinks his system is the height of conservatism … If he has a big profit in a stock, he puts the stop-loss order just below the level at which a sliding stock should meet support. He bought Universal Controls at 18, sold it at 83 on the way down after it had hit 102.Darvas trained for the market just as methodically as he had studied his dancing, read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spent eight hours a day until saturated. Two of the books he rereads almost every week: Humphrey Neill’s Tape Reading and Market Tactics and G. M. Loeb’s The Battle for Investment Survival. He still spends about two hours a day on his stock tables.”That line, “[He] buys when he feels that informed buyers are getting in,” made me chuckle. It should read “He buys when he suspects that uninformed fools are piling in.”An Interview With Nicolas Darvas in 1974:“Don’t forget I too went through a period of learning from 1953 to 1958 where I lost a substantial amount of capital before I worked out what worked and then was lucky enough to time it in the 1958-1960 bull market.”I don’t remember him mentioning this “period of learning” in his $2,000,000 book, but it’s been a long time since I read it. Darvas, like Gann, was one of the few guys from the old days who stressed the importance of stop-losses.time savedtime saved Cat: Trading | Time: 10:37 am (utc+8) Comments (12) Augmented Downside Risks Fed, ECB, Central Banks Cut Rates in Coordinated Move“The Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 1.5 percent. The ECB’s main rate is now 3.75 percent; Canada’s fell to 2.5 percent; the U.K.’s rate dropped to 4.5 percent; and Sweden’s rate declined to 4.25 percent. China cut interest rates for the second time in three weeks, reducing the main rate to 6.93 percent.”The bureaucrats are always a day late and a dollar short, it seems. That’s some incredibly nasty action in the S&P futures (15-min. chart below) and I don’t envy anyone who has to deal with it. You can see that the after-hours trading was nuts and the regular session is simply an “inside bar” which looks to resolve down.  time savedtime saved Cat: Trading | Time: 9:46 am (utc+8) Comments (0) October 8, 2008 Long-term Dow Industrials with Key Fibonacci Levels Here’s a quarterly chart of the Dow Industrials going back to the 1960’s. Measuring off the 1982 low, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are:1) 38.2% = 90712) 50.0% = 74873) 61.8% = 5903Given the ugliness of the chart and the possibility of a generational change of trend here, anything is possible. Be mighty nice if 9000 held. time savedtime saved Cat: Investing | Time: 2:07 pm (utc+8) Comments (31) October 7, 2008 Booyah or Boohoo? What to Make of Cramer’s Panic Jim Cramer: Time to get out of the stock market“I thought about this all weekend. Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week. I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now.”Not sure if it will mark *the* bottom, but surely this marks some kind of major bottom (assuming there is a just God, lol). time savedtime saved Cat: Trading | Time: 12:10 pm (utc+8) Comments (12) Putting Lenders’ Claims on Ice Iceland Guarantees Domestic Deposits, Denies Banks a `Lifeline’“… bank debts have spiraled to about 12 times the size of the island’s economy … The liquidity crisis has sent Iceland’s currency into a tailspin as a shortage of credit batters economies reliant on debt. Iceland had a current account deficit equal to 34 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter, according to combined central bank and statistics office data, with most of the shortfall coming from the cost of sustaining foreign debt payments.”That’s what it looks like when a currency collapses. I’ve drawn a little arrow showing the Krona’s one-year percent change, down over 50%, most of it happening over the last three weeks. UPDATE: By popular demand, the EUR-ISK: time savedtime saved Cat: Currencies | Time: 11:46 am (utc+8) Comments (6) October 6, 2008 Uncoordinated European Leaders Drop the Ball Euro Falls to 13-Month Low as Credit Crisis Spreads to EuropeEuropean Crisis Deepens; Officials Vow to Save Banks“The euro slid to a 13-month low against the dollar and Treasuries rose as the credit crisis spread outside the U.S., prompting investors to opt for less risky investments.”Fans of the Sequential will note that it caught two key turning points in recent weeks (240-minute chart) in the Dollar Index.  time savedtime saved Cat: Currencies | Time: 3:07 pm (utc+8) Comments (1) October 4, 2008 Hunkering Down in Bonds and Bagelfuls Scrolling through the charts this weekend, about 95% of them look like something the cat threw up. (Which reminds me of that old Crumley line, “her idea of a sex kitten looked like something the cat dragged in,” but I digress.)Anyway, what stands out are the Staples and the Bonds. My recent stock picks are heavy on the Staples (I consider McDonald’s (fries), 3M (sticky notes), and Johnson & Johnson (Q-tips) all Staples even though S&P categorizes them differently. :) ) I prefer Chinese Treasury bonds to US Treasury bonds, but that’s another story for another day.Anyway, I urge you to follow Prem Watsa’s advice (emphasis mine, h/t controlledgreed.com): “This is going to be long and deep and people want to save money. Be careful about risk. There are unintended consequences in fixing this and all are ahead of us. This will take years to sort out … For individuals, safety is No. 1. Buy real estate for your family, but not as an investment. Don’t borrow for new cars. Keep borrowing at a minimum. Now’s the time to protect your money. Keep your life simple. Be mortgage-free if you can. People must hunker down.”  Related:Prem Watsa’s Deep Breathing Technique, July 29, 2008Delegated Decision Disaster, November 27, 2007time savedtime saved Cat: Personal Investing | Time: 4:33 pm (utc+8) Comments (7) October 2, 2008 Short McMansions, Long Self-Storage Commenter EricC mentioned recently that he has a long list of financial and real estate stocks that are trading at or near new highs. While I don’t follow that many stocks, I am familiar with the Financial SPDR (XLF) components and know that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is very near a new all-time high, as are PNC, US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BB&T (BBT). (Read what BB&T’s CEO thinks about the $700 billion bailout.) One XLF component stock that has been remarkably strong (besides JPM and the others I mentioned) is Public Storage (PSA), the self-storage REIT. Renting empty space is a dream business (a landlord with absentee tenants!), and it makes sense that downsized and foreclosed Americans need a place to put all their accumulated junk (which they’ve presumably paid for with credit cards).I personally am a client (pro bono) of a different PSA, Parent Storage Associates, having staked out a corner of their garage long ago, where I keep dozens of boxes of no-doubt rapidly molding and mouse-eaten books on trading and investing (many of them “classics” worth thousands of dollars … assuming I can find another fool buyer :) ).  time savedtime saved Cat: Investing | Time: 4:36 pm (utc+8) Comments (6) September 30, 2008 Historical Look at the Volatility Index Here’s a monthly chart of the last 20-odd years of the Volatility Index. Readings of 50+ are rare and obviously mark extreme panic. Assuming you have cash and know what you’re doing, it’s probably not a bad time to buy good companies. May I suggest these ten: Altria (MO): ~$19Boeing (BA): ~$55Coca-Cola (KO): ~$51GE (GE): ~$23Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): ~$67McDonald’s (MCD): ~$603M (MMM): ~$66PepsiCo (PEP): ~70Target (TGT): ~$47Wal-Mart (WMT): ~$58 UPDATE: Many thanks to the people who stole this chart and linked back to the post. A pox on you bastards who stole it and didn’t link back. :-)time savedtime saved Cat: Investing | Time: 9:09 am (utc+8) Comments (56) • Next Page »
Recent Posts Forced Selling Interviews with Nicolas Darvas Augmented Downside Risks Long-term Dow Industrials with Key Fibonacci Levels Booyah or Boohoo? What to Make of Cramer’s Panic Putting Lenders’ Claims on Ice Recent Comments George: help, you should look at MS. It's a real winner. Here's a nice chart. http://www.thelawyertrader.... Born2Code: i will have to adjust my forecast from the other day, i said we will hit zero in about 19 days. we may... help: Is the box still alive? Or did it crash like wall street? Mao I thought you are invincible. help: Any stock tips on how to make $2 mil? Mao please tell me what to buy and sell, I will give you commission if I... C. Maoxian: @Anthony: That's a quarterly chart that I posted before so with this (rapidly approaching) move to the... Markets Stocks Bonds ETFs Currencies Agriculture Energies Metals Trading & Investing Sentiment The_Box China Culture Language Real Estate Internet/Media Barron's Big Media Bloomberg Small Media WordPress Personal Baby Books GCCP Health Movies Music Musings Poker Politics TGIF Travel
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