Proactive Structural Global Economic, Financial Asset Prices bubbles and
risk valuation Mechanism, forecast ahead monetary, economic, fiscal
policy impact on stocks, bond, housing,oil, commodities prices,recession risks
Operations Simulation Analysis
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20
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Stem cell innovations
OSA
pioneer Dr. Warren Huang Sovereign
Wealth Fund
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Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast
months ahead last 20 years US/global Housing mortgage
default, Credit, Financial Crisis
Operations
Simulation Analysis ,
The Causes,
onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession,
Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism
and Systemic
Instability
Basel II credit, Market,
Operational Risks Early Warning
Comment by
Warren Huang - November 14, 2008 at
11:59 am
retest
of Dow Jones low
Based on
my tracking simulation of causes, onset,
recovery of global financial crisis, stock
market crash, it is premature to identify
the Oct low of 7990 as this crisis bottom,
retest of this low just one of the future
bottom, such as Dow broke 9000. As we are
just at the initial stage of the recession.
We have not seen the worst of combined
credit crisis, financial crisis and
recession. Get retest of next years bottom
of 7000 is more meaningful, reliable for
trough . details on
www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html
www.osawh.com/macro.html
www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Comment by
Warren Huang , Wall Street
Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at
10:05 pm
US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM
manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6. 5 % and Dow
Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9
%, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump
continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate
cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
The real causes of current mortgage,
credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial,
monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks
valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities
asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money
supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on
30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM)
and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and
financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset
Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street
Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008
to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge
30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond,
oil, commodities,
metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction
Cause
Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic
Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices
plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones
after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test
1250, S&P test 700 low,
oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas
oil from1300 to 650 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to
44 as global economy enter deep recession by year end,
despite US 700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit
crisis
details on
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 double dip
inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 % , Dow Jones
test 7000- 8000 NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50 % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1800 through early 2009 until
economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing
prices still up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer
spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite
China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China
need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 % next year
to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft
landing and start of bull market stock rally.
Do not miss this proactive
structural price mechanism based strategic
financial modeling and risks valuation, simulation for investment ,
trillion dollar recession hedging strategy
workshops series by
OSA proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and
wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the
wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement
Dr./Prof. Warren Huang
黃華南
博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA
Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy
will be offering
Master Class
Proactive structural simulation forecast of S&P 500 index futures
and component stocks investment workshop,
US/China
2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles
Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop :
Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold,
Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short
strategy
impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,
Derivatives Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation, Forecast, ETF
Risks Hedging
, Investment Strategy
5 Day Global Oil,
Metal, Agricultural Commodity
Market Prices Forecasts and Strategic Structural Trade Finance
SCF
Supply Chain and Value Chain Optimization , Basel lI Risks Management Masterclass workshop,
in-house
at your office at your convenient time
Worshop Goal:
structured to provide the latest proactive structural commodity
market pricing mechanism simulation and quantitative, fundamental
strategic investment decision
tool for global import/export and real time daily commodity, raw material trading,
capitalize on the emerging NY, Chicago, China energy, metal, feed grain
commodity markets pricing , real time trading strategy and Basel II
financing credit default, markets price, operational risks early
warning management maximize value chain profit
at minimum risks
Workshop Mission:
•Provide proactive structural China/global trade and commodity
markets, finance price mechanism,
analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,
metals, feed grain price bull/bear market trend, risks trend achieve sustainable profit , while
minimize risks•
Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity
trade financing to minimize supply chain costs, maximize value chain profits website
www.osawh.com email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global
Proactive
Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and Real Time Commodity Pricing, Finance
Basel II
Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic Restructure, Reengineering Management for
WTO
multilateral, bilateral trade impact analysis and global competitive pricing and market shares
value chain optimization,
risks management WTO trade negotiation strategy,
He will offer the following workshops to the banking, finance,
real estate industries.
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Oil. Commodity,
Currency, Housing Multi-Class Asset Pricing,
Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
2008
Proactive Structural
Asian (
India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore,
Vietnam )/China/US/European QFII Strategic Investment Banking/Capital Markets
Research and Decisions
Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Workshops
5 Day 2008 China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2008 US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2008 UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning,
monetary, economic, fiscal policy, bail out plan impact on credit, financial
crisis, recession workshop
Full Day EU monetary, economic, fiscal, policy, rate cuts, bail out
plan impact on Housing Slump and credit, financial crisis,,
recession cause and impact and earning warning
simulation workshop
US Stocks plunge in
correction to housing market slump, ECB hold interest rate cut, Dollar
gain strength due to drop in March trade deficit by 5 billion and Oil prices , inflation worry continue Comment by Warren
Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May
7, 2008 at 7:37
pm
Stock market plunged 206, finally give up its recent gain on
banking, finance, IT shares despite mounting write down and loss
in mortgage loan default.
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is
used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is
over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss
most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will
continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut
drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the
interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will
repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip
inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year
bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 % It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at
current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price,
inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before
housing price slump ends.
details on
www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Dr.
Warren Huang
was risk management panelist
and full day masterclass workshop lecturer for 150
top global investment banker CEO,, fund managers ,
Terrapinn China Fund Wor
2008
conference,
Shanghai Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing, 2008 credit
tightening
recession impact on currency, oil, commoditiesequities, bond multiclass
,BRIC,Optimal
1x0/x0 long-short hedging, asset allocation , M/A and IPO strategy
for in-house
workshop reservation :
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@sina.com
Dr. Huang speaking to Tianjin Nankai
University Global corporate governance on Monetary, economic, fiscal
policy, macroeconomic, housing industry , excessive liquidity control impact on Shanghai Shenzhen 300
index future price bubble and housing bubble forecast for China
corporate governance scandals Nov. 3, 2007
Wall Street
Journal Market beat Blog comment by Dr. Warren Huang Sept. 19, 2007
Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street
and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise
half point cut,
even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it when the oil price was only
19 dollar and gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again ,
certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price already
up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point. bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will temporarily cut
mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default
rate model)
but it will led to dollar plunge to new low 1.40 , it will hit 1.50
sometime next year,
Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all
time high and heading for 85-90, gold already 735, soybean at 945,
wheat to 870., eventually will spread into core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude
energy and food price) and unemployment
it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks prices will not be
sustainable, start to plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and
led tomore default, the burst of next housing bubble, can not be solved by
any rate cuts
Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full
steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession ahead
detail can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 18, 2007 at
5:55 pm
Dr. Huang predicted on Wall Street energy, economic, market beat
blog July oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged
to12600 and global stocks plunged 20 %
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page
since June 2007 and lecture to Peking University , China int'l
financial
engineering risk management conference that US and global
housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage and hedging fund default betting on the wrong side of interest
rates resulted global stock indices are extremely overpriced,
will
follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal
prices, inflation and continue rate hikes
into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles sub-prime and jumbo mortgage
credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain
in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 %
from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market
wealth gain, recent US Fed 0.5 % discount rate cut and
ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further
inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly
inflationary and continue into second
stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)
What is Global Strategic OSA for government, banking,
finance, business performance and its achievements
OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang CV
,
extend his Ph.D Thesis Moon landing guidance and
control methodology "Nonlinear Adaptive Kalman Filtering and Stochastic control of 4
variable differential equations reactor system"to integrating
Proactive
Structural Dynamic macro economic control into industrial sectors
microeconomic
supply, demand price mechanism and daily capital markets asset prices for
government, banking, finance, business strategic
decisions Operations Simulation
Analysis (OSA) , supported by
goal , mission, performance
tracking,
optimization, achieving optimal monetary policy, growth, prices
stability and sustainable profit,
market share growthIt helps 80 countries government ,banking, finance business
fighting last 20 years uncertain, unknown futures
Thousands decision simulators integrating monetary, economic policy into
daily capital market
prices, business performance, capitalize years, months ahead of last 20 year
opportunities and crisis , change
personal life, change business and world decision making making personal, corporate dreams come true
Dr. Warren Huang CV
Dr. Warren Huang English
publications, speeches
Education
reform innovation, Proactive decision analysis changes life,
organization and change the world
Global Energy Strategy
New generation MBA /CPA/ CFA
Life Education year round rose garden
Proactive Structural Dynamic Asset Price
Basel II Risks Management Credit risks
market risks
Operational risks
He
warned Dec 13, 2006 on Taiwan
University Int'l Finance conference, Taipei to Asian
Merrill Lynch,
Deutch Bank, AIG managing
directors, Cathy Life VP and editor, Journal of finance, int'l scholars
that US/China housing,
equities bubbles resulted record, oil,
metal prices, rate
hikes and stock markets correction 2007,due to inflationary slowdown
30 million US, China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio
institutional, HNW investors, and managers, government, banking,
finance, multinational CEO, VP, executives benefited by OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang's proactive asset prices simulation since 1986
4 millions executives , institutional, HNW investors from 60 countries
bring their management/personal
investment problem to our strategic workshops, take home billion
dollars proactive strategic solution ready
to implement , telling you the what , why , how and
timing of fighting this year unknown, uncertain markets
and capitalize the
emerging markets trend opportunities, risks
Dr. Warren Huang
Partial lists of English Workshops Papers
Dr. Warren Huang has been
keynote speakers for top 100 global central banks governors, financial crisis
and risk management , conferences and session chairman and master class
workshops leaders in Asian Finance, Capital markets, Oil upstream/downstream strategy in 1998-2006,
He offered thousands lectures, commentary for China 15 cities, Taipei, San
Francisco, TV, radio 30 million institutional, HNW investors
on China/Global strategic fund, wealth management, asset allocation since 1994.
rren
Huang latest update for www.osawh.com / www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com web pages on proactive structural for
global banking, finance, enterprises strategic investment, supply chain demand
chain applications visited by 4 million global executives since 1998
contact;
wh3928@yahoo.com /
osawhh@sina.com
2008
年中美宏觀產業調控對利率匯率股指能源金屬期貨金融房產上市公司股價
及衍生工具價格預測投資避險策略五日研討會 舊金山台北上海
World
renowned
global proactive strategic investment, supply chain. risks
management decision
Operations Simulation Analysis
(OSA )
pioneer, Dr. Warren Huang achieved impossible
mission in
integrating moon landing guidance
control problem solving into in two masters
hands controlling
unknown, uncertain future
in global macro-economy, daily
financial market prices, business
performances, maximize risks
adjusted
return"
CEO/CFO Proactive Strategic
Decisions
Workshop 
Endless
success stories of creative innovative
breakthrough
Proactive structural solution to
government, multinationals,
banking, finance, SOE, SME Global
Strategic Investment, Risks Early Warning, Supply Demand Chain
www.osawh.com
OSA
Operations
Simulations
Analysis
Comment to Wall Street Journal Daily real time economics, Market Beat, Energy, Deal,Real Estate Development Blogs
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Dr. Huang extend his PhD. Thesis
moon landing guidance
control,
problem
solving fighting the unknown, uncertain futures in proactive
structural global strategic
investment
banking, supply
chain, risk management and process operations optimal control
during his 30 years
development,
implementation
thousands proactive global asset(
equities, housing,
bond, commodities) prices mechanism decision
simulators
for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum China, Taiwan government,
hundreds state
enterprises, banking, finance, capital markets reform,
change management and thousands CEO/executives
strategic
change
management
training workshops. He predicted months, years ahead of last 20
years Asian,
US, European financial, energy
equities, housing prices bubbles burst
crisis,
through tracking
central banks monetary, fiscal, economic policy
impact on
macro-economic control, daily interest rate,
currency, stock
indices, ( right master hands)
and 20 industrial sectors market
demand, commodities futures, derivatives
prices
( left master ) .
Patented in US Oil & Gas Journal, 1980-83,
advanced control and information handbook, 1991-2005
Thousands
articles published to 80 countries, invited to speak to 50 countries
central bank governors, financial investment, risks management and
chemical engineering, information management conferences.
with 4
millions global executives visited
his
www.osawh.com website since
1998
.
He warned months ahead
on numerous conference,
his website and thousands of published
articles about
1990,
2000, 2003 global
asset bubbles
prices overheating
and thousands interview, lectures for China, Taiwan, US 15 cities
TV, radio fund managers, investors tracking 1994 in China, on
China
runaway inflation, macro economic
control and 2000
in US on IT
bubbles burst and 2003 in Singapore, Shanghai, San Francisco, on
China,US housing bubble overheating resulted 17 rate hikes, China
A shares bear markets and 2006 bull markets overheating.
He predicted to hundreds multinational oil, banking, finance CEO in
Beijing
China Natural gas, ( Feb 2005)
Oil market
(Nov. 2005)
conferences 2005 that oil prices soared from
56
to 78, record
metals prices in 2006 and again
Dec,
2006 to Taipei
financial executives that oil prices soared from 50 to 65 2007,
US facing inflationary slowdown drag
global housing, stock markets
correction 2007.
He taught thousand Taiwan, Tsinghwa, Tunghai university students
industrial economics, global strategic management, chemical
engineering
process design, control tracking 100 countries macro-economic, interest, currency, and process optimization.
He
also lectured Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Zhejiang, Shanghai Finance
and Economics, Huazhong Science, Tech universities
economic
management, financial engineering, capital markets reform innovation
His goal, mission, performance oriented
online adaptive education has trained numerous new generation
China/Tawain / US CPA/CFA/CFA for
undergraduates and senior executives,
integrating proactive global strategic financial decision
analysis into financial, cost, derivatives accounting,
investment banking, global economy, business, equities, derivatives research
4 million global
government, banking, finance, enterprises executives, academic visitors
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