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ArbitrageView.com v:shapes="_x0000_s1028">
ArbitrageView.com intends to identify and track the
profit opportunities
on pending merger and acquisition deals in the U.S. markets.
Merger Arbitrage
Merger arbitrage,
also called Risk Arbitrage is one of the most popular hedge fund
strategies. It involves buying the stock of the company being acquired
(“the target”) while selling short the stock of the acquiring company
(“acquirer”). Normally the acquirer will offer a premium in order to
purchase the target company. After a merger deal is announced, the price
of the target company usually moves substantially higher to reflect the
premium in value being paid by the acquiring company. Despite this
increase, the target’s stock may still trade at a relative discount to the
final merger value. The discount spread is the profit opportunity which
the risk arbitrageurs attempt to capture.
Risks
It is important to
note that merger arbitrage is not a complete risk free strategy. Profiting
on the discount spread may look like the closest thing to a free lunch on
Wall Street, however there are number of risks such as the probability of
a deal failing, shareholders voting down a deal, revising the terms of the
merger, potential lawsuits etc. In addition the trading discount captures
the time value of money for the period between the announcement and the
closing of the deal. Again the arbitrageurs face the risk of a deal being
prolonged and achieving smaller rate of return on an annualized basis.
The size of the
arbitrage spread is usually a good indicator of the probability of success
assigned by the market participants for each deal. A deal that is
perceived as riskier will trade at a bigger discount compared to other
deals, therefore offers better returns for the traders willing to take the
risk. The arbitrage spreads will change with time and as new information
become available. As the closing date of the merger approaches, the spread
should eventually converge to zero.
Diversification
One
of the best ways to reduce the risk in merger arbitrage is to participate
in multiple deals simultaneously. Diversifying across several deals
without being overweight in any particular one will ensure that if one of
the deals fails it will have only limited impact on the portfolio as a
whole.
Cash Merger
There are three main
types of mergers - cash merger, stock merger and combination of both cash
and stock merger.
Perhaps the easiest
merger type to understand and calculate is the cash merger. Here is one
example: Company A is buying Company T for $20 a share. After the
announcement, the stock of company T trades at $18 per share, therefore
the arbitrage spread is $2 or 11.1%. Let’s assume this deal is scheduled
to close in 6 months. This trade will yield 23% on annualized basis. In
this scenario the arbitrageur will simply borrow at a rate lower than 23%
and purchase the stock of company T.
Stock Merger
Stock mergers are
usually more complex. In general the Acquirer will offer some of their
shares in exchange for the shares of the Target Company. For example the
acquirer will offers 0.5 shares of A for each share of the target T. If A
is trading at $40, the merger value they are offering is 0.5*40= $20 per
share. The main catch here is that the implied value of the merger becomes
a function of the stock price of the acquirer. If the Acquirer trades at
$30 by the closing date of the deal, the value of the deal is only $15.
The trading strategy
in stock merger scenario will be to purchase the Target and sell short the
Acquirer using the merger ratio. In this example it would a long position
of 100 shares in stock T and a short position of 50 shares in stock A. By
doing this the trader will be locking in the arbitrage spread. Regardless
of which direction the price of the Acquirer goes one side of this trade
will loose and the other side will profit. The ultimate profit will be at
the time the spread converges to zero.
Stock and Cash
Merger
In this type of
merger the Acquirer offers a combination of the 2 scenarios already
mentioned. To continue the example from above the Acquirer may want to pay
$10 per share in cash and .25 share of A for each share of T. Again the
merger value will be $20 = $10 + 0.25*$40.
A hedge trader will
have to consider that the ratio here is 0.25 and assume the appropriate
short position
Research and
Analysis
It is essential for
any hedge trader to perform thorough research before entering into a risk
arbitrage position. Every deal is unique. In addition to the 3 types of
mergers listed here, there may be additional conditions and rules which
may alter the calculations. The best source of information for each deal
is the press release issued by the companies.
This
material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as
an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. At anytime
AV's affiliates may maintain long or short positions in the securities
listed in this report. The information contained in the report is not
guaranteed by ArbitrageView.com to be accurate and should not considered
to be all-inclusive.
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